Cryptocurrency Risk Management through Decision Engineering: Evaluating XRPUSD and ADAUSD Portfolio Performance

Abstract

This research examines the risk profiles of XRPUSD and ADAUSD cryptocurrencies through Value at Risk (VaR) analysis with Monte Carlo simulation, providing quantitative risk assessments for both individual assets and a diversified portfolio. Analyzing historical price data from January 2016 to November 2024, the study identifies distinctive risk characteristics between these cryptocurrencies: ADAUSD exhibited marginally higher historical returns (1.44% monthly) compared to XRPUSD (1.42%), but with notably higher volatility (standard deviation of 5.41% versus 4.65%). The Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations generated VaR estimates at multiple confidence levels, revealing that XRPUSD consistently demonstrated lower downside risk than ADAUSD across all confidence thresholds. At the 99% confidence level, ADAUSD showed a Mean VaR of -10.97%, indicating potential monthly losses exceeding $10.97 million on a hypothetical $100 million investment, while XRPUSD's lower Mean VaR of -9.52% translated to potential losses of approximately $9.52 million. The most striking finding emerged from the portfolio analysis, which revealed dramatic risk reduction through diversification—the equally-weighted portfolio achieved a Mean VaR of merely -2.22% at the 99% confidence level, representing an approximately 80% reduction in potential losses compared to ADAUSD alone. These results demonstrate that cryptocurrency diversification can substantially mitigate extreme downside risk while maintaining exposure to the digital asset class. The significant risk reduction achieved through a simple two-asset allocation validates the application of modern portfolio theory principles to cryptocurrency investments despite their unique characteristics and underscores the critical importance of diversified approaches rather than concentrated positions for risk-conscious cryptocurrency investors. This research contributes to both theoretical understanding of cryptocurrency risk dynamics and practical portfolio construction approaches, providing quantitative evidence for the value of diversification strategies in navigating the substantial volatility inherent in digital asset markets.