The date predicted 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain

Keywords: Covid-19, forecasting, Spain

Viewed = 397 time(s)


The aim of this study is to predict 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain. Covid-19 Spanish confirmed data obtained from Worldometer from 01 March 2020 – 17 April 2020. The data from 01 March 2020 – 10 April 2020 using to fitting with data from 11 April – 17 April 2020. For the evaluation of the forecasting accuracy measures, we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Based on the results of SutteARIMA fitting data, the accuracy of SutteARIMA for the period 11 April 2020 - 17 April 2020 is 0.61% and we forecast 20.000 confirmed cases of Spain by the WHO situation report day 90/91 which is 19 April 2020 / 20 April 2020.


Download data is not yet available.


Yang Y, Peng F, Wang R, Guan K, Jiang T, Xu G, et al. The deadly coronaviruses: The 2003 SARS pandemic and the 2020 novel coronavirus epidemic in China. J Autoimmun 2020:102434.

Worldometer. Spain Coronavirus 2020. (accessed April 8, 2020).

Koczkodaj WW, Mansournia MA, Pedrycz W, Wolny-Dominiak A, Zabrodskii PF, Strzaška D, et al. 1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic. Glob Epidemiol 2020:100023.

Roosa K, Lee Y, Luo R, Kirpich A, Rothenberg R, Hyman JM, et al. Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020. Infect Dis Model 2020;5:256–63.

Wei WWS. Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods. New York: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company; 1994.

Ahmar AS. A Comparison of α-Sutte Indicator and ARIMA Methods in Renewable Energy Forecasting in Indonesia. Int J Eng Technol 2018;7:20–2.

Ahmar AS, Rahman A, Mulbar U. α-Sutte Indicator: A new method for time series forecasting. J. Phys. Conf. Ser., vol. 1040, 2018.

Ahmar AS, del Val EB. SutteARIMA: Short-term forecasting method, a case: Covid-19 and stock market in Spain. Sci Total Environ 2020:138883.

How to Cite
Ahmar, A. S., & Boj, E. (2020). The date predicted 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain. Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education, 2(2), 188-193.