The date predicted 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain

Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Eva Boj

doi:10.35877/454RI.asci22102

Ansari Saleh Ahmar Business School, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain (ES) http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6888-9043
Eva Boj del Val Department of Economic, Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain (ES) http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9487-0693

https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.asci22102

Keywords: Covid-19, forecasting, Spain

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to predict 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain. Covid-19 Spanish confirmed data obtained from Worldometer from 01 March 2020 – 17 April 2020. The data from 01 March 2020 – 10 April 2020 using to fitting with data from 11 April – 17 April 2020. For the evaluation of the forecasting accuracy measures, we use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Based on the results of SutteARIMA fitting data, the accuracy of SutteARIMA for the period 11 April 2020 - 17 April 2020 is 0.61% and we forecast 20.000 confirmed cases of Spain by the WHO situation report day 90/91 which is 19 April 2020 / 20 April 2020.

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